In A Shifting World, India Will Need To Learn to Walk A Tightrope

On the volatile geopolitical chessboard, India is navigating a landscape fraught with unpredictability. As a rising power in the Indo-Pacific, India confronts a world reshaped by post-Covid conflicts and capricious policies, with the United States under Donald Trump 2.0 emerging as a beacon of strategic uncertainty. This shifting dynamic compels India to tread a delicate path, balancing its ambitions with pragmatism.

The US-India relationship, long anchored by its shared democratic ideals and strategic alignment, faces new strains. Trump’s tariff threats, wielded as diplomatic leverage, seek to bend negotiating partners to Washington’s will. India, a linchpin in the Indo-Pacific and a vital US partner, does not seem immune to this approach by Trump. The imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian goods, effective August 1, 2025, coupled with an additional “penalty” for India’s energy and defense ties with Russia, signals a transactional turn in US policy. These measures, far from fostering cooperation, risk alienating a vital partner.

India’s strategic mettle was vividly displayed in the aftermath of the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Taiba-linked TRF and allegedly backed by Pakistan’s ISI. In a calibrated response, India executed “Operation Sindoor,” a series of precise strikes on 9 terrorist basecamps. This showcased not only India’s military prowess but also the efficacy of its indigenously developed AKASH air defensesystem and other weaponry. The global interest in India’s defense exports post-conflict underscores its emergence as a formidable arms supplier, elevating its stature on the world stage.

On the flipside, Pakistan’s decisive defeat exposed the limitations of China-supplied weaponry, further burnishing India’s reputation as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region. Yet, this triumph has seemingly unsettled the US, which appears to be reverting to an outdated playbook of balancing India’s rise with Pakistan’s utility.

Echoes of the Past

The US’s recent overtures to Pakistan evoke uneasy parallels with its Cold War-era alignment, when Washington backed Islamabad to counter Soviet influence in Asia. During the 1971 India-Pakistan war, US backchannel efforts sought to curb India’s military ascendancy while Pakistan ravaged East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). Today, Trump’s engagement with Pakistan’s army chief, General Asif Munir – a figure India views as a hardline ideologue and the architect of Pahalgam terror attack – revives these memories.

The White House lunch hosted for Munir in June 2025, excluding Pakistan’s civilian leadership, signals troubling prioritizations by Washington. Trump’s claim of brokering the India-Pakistan ceasefire, vociferously refuted by New Delhi, further strains credulity. India, a status-quo power focused on economic growth, required no external prodding to de-escalate. Its actions were driven by a commitment to deterrence and a rejection of terrorism, not acquiescence to US pressure.

In the midst of all this, Trump’s courtship of Pakistan as a “counter-terrorism partner” and potential oil supplier to India ignores inconvenient truths: Islamabad’s history of harboringterrorists, exemplified by Osama bin Laden’s presence in Abbottabad, and its continued siphoning of international aid under the guise of development.

These actions expose Trump’s (and in fact, most of the previous administrations’) ever-lasting dichotomy where on one hand, Washington aims to lead the global fight against terror, and on the other, aims to fund one of the biggest state-sponsors of terrorism in a distorted effort to preserve a now defunct unipolar world led by the US. Additionally, it also lends credence to a long-held notion in the corridors of the South Block and academic circles that the US, indeed, does not understand India well while it argues for a pivot towards the Indo-Pacific.

Why, one may ask? Well, the answer lies in a new containment strategy under Trump 2.0 that, this time, is aimed at countering China, but might come at the cost of alienating India.

In its bid to counter China (who is now courting India and has established stronger-than-ever relationship with Russia) and to preserve its so-called hegemony, the US seems to have been backed into a corner. While it understands the value India brings as a partner, especially in the Indo-Pacific, the US under Trump is not able to fathom New Delhi’s want to be an equal at the negotiating table amidst a call for multipolarity. It is this paranoia that has seemingly led Trump down the path where he’s courting Asif Munir, has issued numerous tariff threats to India while chasing a deal with them, has repeatedly tried to hog credit for the ceasefire between New Delhi & Islamabad (which has been vociferously refuted by Indian establishment on multiple occasions) and has stated that he doesn’t care what India and Russia do – all in a manner which has been recently & very aptly described by Shashi Tharoor as ‘geopolitical grandstanding’.

Walking the Tightrope

Thus, India now faces a dual diplomatic challenge: navigating US unpredictability while engaging China cautiously. With the US, India must contend with recurring critiques – on democracy, human rights, or its Russian partnerships – while countering tariff threats. With China, post-Galwan détente offers opportunities but demands a risk aversive approach rooted in vigilance to safeguard national security and economic interests.

To thrive in this fractured landscape, India must play the long game. By bolstering indigenous capabilities – military, economic, and technological – it can assert greater leverage in negotiations. The Quad remains a vital platform for collaboration with the US, Japan, and Australia, but India’s foreign policy will need to prioritize strategic autonomy over entanglement in great-power rivalries.

As India strides into the second quarter of the century, its mantra must be the relentless pursuit of Comprehensive National Power. This alone will enable New Delhi to navigate the diplomatic tightrope, balancing engagement with assertiveness, and securing its place as a global power unshackled by the whims of others.

(Bhavdeep is currently practising as an independent litigator at the High Court of Punjab & Haryana, and has worked & written extensively on matters of defense & national security).