Trump’s Russian Roulette with India: A high-stakes gamble in global trade

I’ve called it “Russian Roulette,” but this may be better described as “Trump Roulette” or even “Trump Craps.” President Donald Trump is gambling with global trade and the future of the U.S.-India partnership. He is tossing the dice in a game where it’s hard to tell whether the aim is strategic pressure, political theatre, or chaos posing as diplomacy. At the centre of this standoff is India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. In response, Trump has threatened a 25 percent tariff on Indian exports, along with additional penalties tied to its energy ties with Moscow. While the move is framed as part of his effort to isolate Vladimir Putin, it is India, not Russia, that finds itself in the firing line.

A High-Stakes Game with Global Ripples

Tensions began with Trump’s ultimatum to Russia on July 15. He demanded an end to the war in Ukraine within 50 days or warned of sweeping secondary sanctions. With no sign of compliance from the Kremlin, Trump turned his attention to countries still doing business with Moscow. India, now importing nearly 40 percent of its oil from Russia, quickly became a target.

On July 30, the White House announced the 25 percent tariff on Indian goods, to take effect August 1. Trump also threatened additional economic penalties over India's energy and defence relations with Russia. He views India’s continued purchases of Russian crude as a lifeline for the Russian war machine.

India’s growing reliance on Russian oil is a matter of necessity. With roughly 90 percent of its oil needs met through imports, Russian crude has helped shield India from global price shocks. Officials in New Delhi argue that these purchases are based on market logic and energy security, not political alignment. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s calls for “Swadeshi,” or economic self-reliance, have been interpreted as a subtle but firm message that India will not yield to foreign pressure.

Yet, because Putin is refusing to play ball, India is now caught in the crossfire. Washington’s frustration with Moscow is being redirected at New Delhi, and the consequences could be long-lasting.

A Strategic Misfire in the Making

Trump’s critics describe his approach as erratic. But it may be more calculated than it looks. The pressure on India appears designed to force trade concessions and challenge what Trump sees as hypocrisy. In his view, India is buying discounted Russian oil while enjoying favourable access to U.S. markets. He has accused New Delhi of reselling Russian oil for profit, arguing that American naval forces are keeping global sea lanes open while India benefits.

The greater concern, however, lies in the unintended consequences. China, notably, is not being subjected to the same pressure despite being a major buyer of Russian energy. Trump’s selective enforcement has raised suspicions that the campaign is less about isolating Russia and more about squeezing partners for leverage. As a result, China may quietly benefit. Alienating India could allow Beijing to portray itself as a more stable partner to countries in the Global South.

India’s alignment with the U.S. on Indo-Pacific issues has been a cornerstone of recent strategic planning. But Trump is now testing the limits of that alignment. His aggressive posture risks weakening trust not just in India, but among other partners as well.

Tired Allies and Eroding Trust

Japan has remained publicly neutral, but concerns in Tokyo are growing. Privately, officials worry about the strain on Quad cooperation. In Europe, the mood is increasingly sour. One senior EU diplomat described Trump’s behaviour as “economic vandalism masquerading as statecraft.”

Trump’s frequent use of tariffs and secondary sanctions has left allies exposed to compliance risks and uncertainty. His unpredictability undermines multilateral planning, especially as countries grapple with inflation and political instability. While Trump sells this approach as strength, many capitals see chaos.

Economic Blowback

India’s exports to the U.S. were worth $86.5 billion in the last financial year. Key sectors include pharmaceuticals, textiles, and electronics. A 25 percent tariff could hit all three, undermining India’s ambitions to become a global manufacturing hub and a credible alternative to China.

The move also disrupts the broader trend of supply chain diversification. Washington has encouraged its partners to reduce reliance on China. Now, punishing India sends a conflicting message to U.S. companies looking for stable manufacturing bases in Asia.

There are also risks to global energy markets. If India is pushed to scale back Russian imports, millions of barrels could be taken out of the system. That would likely drive up oil prices, especially affecting developing economies already under stress.

India’s Quiet Resistance

India has avoided dramatic countermeasures. Officials continue to buy Russian crude based on market viability and have reiterated their commitment to making decisions in the national interest. The Ministry of External Affairs has called for “fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial” ties with the United States. It is a diplomatic way of saying India won’t be lectured.

There are signs of growing frustration, however. Parliamentarian Shashi Tharoor recently suggested India might reconsider its trade priorities if Trump’s pressure campaign continues. His remarks reflect a broader unease in New Delhi. India has options and is unlikely to be boxed into a single alignment.

What Next?

Trump’s “Russian Roulette” with India—what increasingly resembles Trump Craps—is a gamble that could backfire. It may appeal to voters at home who enjoy tough talk, but it risks undermining key pillars of U.S. foreign policy. India is not a subordinate player. It is a rising power with its own interests, alliances, and red lines.

By treating friends like foes, Trump risks isolating the very partners the U.S. needs to contain adversaries like China and Russia. If India is pushed too far, it could accelerate its pivot toward alternative economic and diplomatic frameworks, such as BRICS. The damage to the Quad, the Indo-Pacific strategy, and global energy markets could be substantial.

In a world moving toward multi-polarity, bullying tactics may yield diminishing returns. If Trump continues to treat diplomacy like a casino floor, he may soon discover that the house doesn’t always win. When it comes to India, he may already be rolling with loaded dice.