Bernard Haykel explains why Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders believe the Iranian regime has become an "untenable" neighbor. Characterizing the regime as a regional "arsonist" that uses extortion and military threats, such as attacking ships or firing rockets at skyscrapers, Prof Haykel argues that such instability directly sabotages the Gulf's efforts to diversify their economies and build secure, global hubs like Dubai. Consequently, many Arab nations have concluded that the regime is not a responsible actor and must be significantly weakened to ensure the long-term economic and physical security of the region. Watch the full interview here - https://youtu.be/00eIrh9jw6Q?si=ah0MQr7t4MraSqzW

Note - This episode was recorded on March 23. Given the rapidly evolving situation, particularly regarding Iran, some of the developments discussed may have changed since the time of recording. ---- In this compelling interview with Ishan Dhar, Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), unpacks the arrest of Matthew VanDyke and six Ukrainian nationals as well as the ever-widening shadow of the Iran war. Chapters 00:00 - 00:52 - Opening 00:53 - 02:08 - Introduction 02:09 - 04:22 - NIA Arrests: Matthew VanDyke and six Ukrainian nationals 04:23 - 08:58 - The outsourcing of Ukrainian drone operators and influence operations 08:59 - 17:14 - Is the US interfering in India's northeast? 17:15 - 22:22 - The incompetence of the American-Israeli operation in Iran 22:23 - 28:48 - The Iranian onslaught on the Persian Gulf states 28:49 - 33:49 - Is an American ground offensive in the offing in Iran? 33:50 - 34:57 - The resignation of Joe Kent 34:58 - 41:00 - Will Iran accelerate nuclear enrichment? 41:01 - 43:56 - Is an energy crisis coming? 43:57 - 44:19 - Closing #Geopolitics #Iran #Israel #USIran #MiddleEast #ForeignMercenaries #GlobalSecurity #IndiaNortheast #WarAnalysis #StrategicAffairs #InternationalRelations #Defense #Podcast #WorldPolitics

Bernard Haykel argues that the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu’s confidence in toppling the Iranian regime is fueled by an inner circle telling him what he wants to hear. Meanwhile, high-ranking members of the Israeli security establishment warn that the regime is simply too well entrenched to fall, but their warnings are being ignored by the political leadership. He adds that the Iranian regime remains united, heavily armed, and has proven it is willing to use lethal force against its own citizens to maintain power. Watch the full interview here - https://youtu.be/00eIrh9jw6Q?si=ah0MQr7t4MraSqzW

Bernard Haykel outlines the key dynamics of the ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Iranian regime. He highlights two major variables that will determine the outcome, the first being President Trump’s commitment to the campaign (‘pain threshold’)and the Iranian regime’s true military capabilities (such as the numbers of drones and missiles they have left) which are very opaque. He further adds that Iran has a massive ‘pain threshold’ because its ideology is built entirely around resistance, resilience, and martyrdom. According to Prof Haykel, the regime does not care about the suffering of its own people and believes it can simply wait the war out forever. Despite their rhetoric of outlasting the conflict, Prof Haykel points out the reality that Iran and its infrastructure are being ‘systematically destroyed’, he concludes that while it's unclear how or when they will do it, but if President Trump is willing to keep the pressure on, Iran will eventually be forced to capitulate. Watch the full interview here - https://youtu.be/00eIrh9jw6Q?si=ah0MQr7t4MraSqzW

Bernard Haykel explains that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf countries have shifted from neutrality, now allowing the U.S. to use their bases, airspace, and waters in the UAE and Saudi Arabia to attack Iran, contrasting their prior refusals, though it's unclear if they'll join actively with their air forces, special forces, or missiles given limited added value beyond U.S. and Israeli capabilities.

In this compelling interview with Ishan Dhar, Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies and Director of the Institute of the Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia at Princeton University, examines the probable search for a U.S. off-ramp amid escalating economic warfare by Iran, the evolving alignment between the United States and Israel, and the risks of accelerated Iranian nuclearisation. He analyses the consolidation of the Islamic regime around Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran, the strategic calculus of Mohammed bin Salman and the Gulf states, and questions why Israel’s confidence in a regime-change strategy in Iran may have been misplaced, seemingly shaped in part by an insular decision-making circle around Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The conversation also explores the role of proxy actors, from the Houthis to Iraqi Shi‘i militias, the durability of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the implications of renewed U.S. diplomacy with the Iranians under President Donald Trump. Finally, Prof. Haykel assesses how the conflict could reshape the regional order, all the while deepening political divisions within the United States. Chapters - 0:00- 0:48 Opening 1:05- 2:04 Is the US looking for an offramp through negotiations? 2:38- 4:19Are the US and Israel still on the same page? 4:37- 5:48 Is Iranian acceleration of nuclearisation now inevitable 6:13- 7:56 Has the Iranian regime consolidated around Mojtaba Khameini? 8:19- 9:03 Why was Israel so certain of its ability to effect regime change in Iran? 9:38- 14:03 Why was Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman opposed to the US-Israeli operation? 14:21- 15:02 The Iranians are punishing the UAE for joining the Abraham Accords 15:39- 16:43 Is the GCC disillusioned with the US as a provider of net security? 17:08- 17:48 The GCC goes beyond its neutral defensive posture against Iran 18:23- 20:47 Has this conflict changed the prospects of normalisation with Israel? How does the GCC view Israeli hegemony as a potential outcome? 21:14- 22:35 Hezbollah is unlikely to be defeated while the Iranian regime survives 22:48- 23:46 The involvement of the Houthis and the Iraqi Shia militias 24:04- 25:42 Have Saudi Arabia and the UAE buried the hatchet in the face of the Iranian threat? 26:05- 27:56 Prospects of President Trump's surprise overtures 28:44- 32:04 The Iran war and political polarisation within the US 32:49-33:05 Closing #usa #israeliranwar #israel #iran #straitofhormuz #oil #geopolitics #internationalrelations #interview #news #trump #geopolitics

Watch the full conversation - https://youtu.be/ZBsoO4NXacg #Dhurandhar #NationalNarrative #India #IndianCinema #Geopolitics #History #CulturalNarrative #Podcast #IndianHistory #NarrativeBuilding #PoliticalDiscourse #CinemaAndPolitics #IndianIdentity

Watch the full conversation - https://youtu.be/ZBsoO4NXacg #Dhurandhar #NationalNarrative #India #IndianCinema #Geopolitics #History #CulturalNarrative #Podcast #IndianHistory #NarrativeBuilding #PoliticalDiscourse #CinemaAndPolitics #IndianIdentity