Shared Himalayan Climate Threat

Climate change is transforming the Himalayas into a zone of escalating risk, endangering shared rivers, infrastructure and livelihoods across Nepal and India. Only a deeper, science-driven partnership can turn this growing vulnerability into long-term regional resilience.

The Himalayas, often called the “Third Pole” for their vast store of ice and snow, are melting faster than ever. The consequences of this fundamental shift in the climate system extend across South Asia, reshaping rivers, agriculture, energy systems and the lives of millions. For Nepal and India, which share not only a 1,800-kilometer open border but also an intricate network of rivers and ecosystems, climate change is not an abstract threat. It is an unfolding crisis that binds their destinies more tightly than any political change, treaty or trade deal ever could.

Yet despite this shared vulnerability, climate change remains a marginal topic in official Nepal–India dialogues. Though the two neighbours have long cooperated on water, energy and connectivity, they have yet to make climate resilience an agenda of their partnership. As impacts intensify, from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) to erratic monsoons and transboundary flooding, the need for joint action has never been more urgent.

As the world prepares for a renewed push to accelerate climate action, including under the Paris Agreement, Nepal and India enter the global climate stage with intertwined challenges and interests. Events like COP30 offer a rare opportunity for both countries to push the Himalayas, a critical but neglected climate hotspot to the forefront of global negotiations. A coordinated Himalayan climate agenda could strengthen their bargaining power and help secure financing and technology to safeguard the region’s fragile future.

A Shared Geography, a Shared Risk

Nepal lies at the heart of the Himalayas, occupying around 880 kilometers of the mountain range that feeds major river systems like the Koshi, Gandaki and Karnali. These rivers cross into India, nourishing the fertile plains of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, regions that depend heavily on Himalayan meltwater.

But the same source of abundance is turning into a looming danger. Accelerated glacial thinning and retreat have expanded glacial lakes, many dammed by fragile moraines. When these barriers burst, GLOFs release torrents of water and debris that devastate downstream communities.

Twenty-four GLOFs have occurred in Nepal in recent decades, including major disasters in 1964, 1981 and 1985. In August 2024, a GLOF from Thyanbo glacial lake caused severe flooding in Thame village, Solukhumbu. In July 2025, another GLOF combined with heavy rainfall destroyed the Rasuwagadhi-Kerung Friendship Bridge, disrupting Nepal–China trade. Losses ran into billions of rupees.

Upstream events in Nepal spill quickly into India. GLOFs, flash floods and landslides can damage cross-border infrastructure, disrupt hydropower exports, and endanger lives in India’s northern states. Shifts in Nepal’s rainfall and snowmelt patterns directly affect the Ganga Basin, Asia’s most populous river system. Neither country can manage these risks alone.

Hydropower Investments at Risk

Hydropower is the backbone of Nepal–India energy cooperation. Nepal exports around 1,000 MW to India and 40 MW to Bangladesh. India is Nepal’s largest investor, financing more than 3,400 MW of capacity through projects like the Arun III (900 MW) and Upper Karnali (900 MW). The Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency has acquired a 10 percent stake in the latter.

But hydropower projects are increasingly threatened by extreme rainfall, glacial flooding and landslides. Many have been damaged or delayed. Climate impacts make these investments far more vulnerable than policymakers acknowledge.

Despite this, climate resilience is still not central to bilateral planning. When Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal visited India in June 2023, Nepal and India finalized a landmark 10,000 MW electricity trade agreement, yet climate change appeared only briefly in the joint statement.

The Silence at the Top

This silence is longstanding. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to Nepal in 2014, the 35-point communiqué did not mention climate change. Successive visits repeated this pattern. Both governments continue to treat climate as secondary to economic goals.

Decades-old river treaties, Koshi (1954), Gandak (1959) and Mahakali (1996), focus on water sharing and power generation but say little about basin sustainability, glacial risks or ecosystem health. They do not address climate-induced threats.

From Hydropower Diplomacy to Climate Diplomacy

For Nepal and India to thrive amid climate uncertainty, they must transform their partnership into a climate alliance rooted in science, equity and shared security.

A first step is establishing a Permanent Nepal–India Climate and Water Commission, replacing temporary committees. This body would unite hydrologists, climate scientists and disaster experts to coordinate real-time data, harmonize policies, and strengthen joint water governance.

Flood management requires shared early warning systems and automated telemetry stations, integrating satellite monitoring and joint disaster control rooms. Community-based early warnings must complement structural measures like embankments and dams. Nature-based solutions, restoring forests, wetlands and floodplains, could stabilize slopes, reduce sedimentation and boost resilience.

Both Nepal’s Terai and India’s northern plains face floods, droughts and heat stress. Joint adaptation projects, renewable energy, agroforestry, bamboo cultivation, ecotourism could create green jobs and enhance resilience. A Trans-Himalayan Climate Research Network could fill critical gaps in glacial science.

Path Ahead

As climate threats mount, outdated bilateral treaties should give way to a Transboundary Rivers and Climate Resilience Treaty recognizing climate change as a shared security threat. Such a framework must balance ecological safeguards with equitable water-sharing.

If Nepal and India take these steps once Kathmandu has a stable government, they could transform shared vulnerabilities into shared strength, advancing climate resilience and regional solidarity.

The way forward is to convert hydrological interdependence into climate cooperation. Shared rivers, glaciers and monsoons demand joint adaptation. By investing in science-based solutions and empowering local communities, Nepal and India can build a model of transboundary climate resilience for the entire Himalayan region. Acting now can protect millions, foster sustainable growth and ensure a more secure future for generations.

(This OpEd was first published in Republica Nepal - https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/a-shared-himalayan-climate-threat-65-52.html).