Why the floods in Assam need a regional response

Many consider floods in Assam as a yearly phenomenon. It is. But this time, there is something starkly different about it.

It is not shocking that of the 35 districts, 15 have been impacted in the recent floods. In 2022, Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) revealed that all were impacted, with more than 180 deaths. That happened in phases, from June till September. In 2025, it was 28 districts, over three phases. What is peculiar this time is that the Upper Assam Division districts such as Golaghat, Shivsagar, Charaideo have been disproportionately impacted. About 300 villages have been submerged, wiping out homes, livelihood and hope for many. The death toll reached 98 by first week of August, with more than 1.55 lakh people affected.

Evidently, the floods have not been caused by heavy rainfall in Assam alone or swelling of the Brahmaputra. If that was the case, similar floods would have occurred in other places. Continuous rainfall in Nagaland has added to the worsening situation, which lead to overflowing of rivers like Dikhow, Dhansiri and Disang entering Assam.

Three submissions are noted here in this regard. First, floods in Assam should not be treated as the state’s problem alone. Water and rivers are a State subject under the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution. The inter-state nature of floods in Assam highlights the need for greater cooperation between Governments. Experts have pointed to large-scale deforestation in Nagaland having compounding impact on floods in Upper Assam. From Meghalaya, rainwater slips into parts of Guwahati each year, creating waterlogging without local rainfall. In 2017, release of excessive water from the Ranganadi Dam in Arunachal had caused flash floods in Lakhimpur and Dhemaji districts. On 3 August, 10 villages in Darrang district were inundated due to embarkment breach of the Noa River flowing from Arunachal. The idea is not to pass on the buck to neighbouring states, but to institutionalize serious inter-state deliberations. While efforts are underway, the North Eastern Council (NEC), that the mandate and capacity to deal with the matter, must initiate a consistent monitoring and dialogue framework between the concerned states immediately.

Second, serious stocktaking should take place of systems and mechanisms that exists but are failing too often. The Ministry of Development of Northeast Region (DoNER) has noted about 24 projects worth Rs.345 crore being executed for flood control and anti-erosion in the northeastern states. Project status range between completed and ongoing. These have not helped yet. There is the North Eastern Space Application Center (NESAC) of ISRO that has developed Flood Early Warning System (FLEWS) and is working with ASDMA. Similarly, models for heavy rainfall and cloud burst alerts have been developed. These provide near real time data.

Third, there is an international aspect to this that needs to be kept in mind. If a dam in Arunachal can cause flash flood in Assam unintentionally, imagine what China can do to lower riparian areas intentionally. Repeated caution on this aspect within India has been taken seriously. Recently, rumours also spread about Bhutan’s release of water causing the current floods in Assam. This was dismissed by the Assam Government stating that India and Bhutan have real time data sharing mechanisms in place based on which things can be cross-checked. With China, despite an Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) on Trans-border Rivers existing since 2006, there has been interruptions and lack of reliability on it. Beijing has not shared any hydrological data since 2022, despite the ELM continuing to meet, last in 2025. On 7 August, at the 36th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on India-China Border Affairs, New Delhi has asked Beijing to re-start data sharing. This must be carefully pursued.

Government and civil society responses have been consistent in Assam. More than relief, it is time to think of restoration now. On 10 August, Rs.5 crore was announced by the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh for flood-hit Assam. Nagaland Minister, Temjen Along, stated the need to cooperate with the Assam Government on regulating excessive mining in Nagaland. Perhaps, now that the Governments of the concerned states are run by the BJP or its alliance partners, things move more effectively. But, alone or not, Assam must be prepared for the future as the rainy season continues in various parts of India.

(Shrabana Barua is Associate Professor at O.P. Jindal University and Nachiket Javali is a researcher based out of Delhi.)