In the complex political terrain of Bangladesh, recent events have underscored the challenge the nation faces in achieving stability and responsible governance. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) deployment of arsonist on October 28th is a disheartening recurrence, reflecting the ongoing struggle for political equilibrium in a country striving for progress on multiple fronts. We all got a taste of what Tarique Rahman’s movement to ‘topple’ and ‘overthrow’ the government feels like. It is not a good look for the country that is ploughing forward and turning heads in its quest to elevate the life of its 170 million citizens.
Bangladesh has earned global acclaim for its strides in human development, women’s empowerment, and social uplifting. Poverty rates and other key performance indicators are all looking beyond healthy. Under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, and the industrious character of the Bangladesh people, the economy has been transformed. Digital Bangladesh is not just a slogan, but a tangible reality, propelling the country towards diversify its economy with a focus on high tech and heavy industry. It has led to economists and World Bank officials calling it the rising Asian Tiger. However, the same cannot be said for its democratic and political landscape, where challenges persist.
Recently, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to step into to take measures against an Awami League figure who threatened a US diplomat. The Awami League’s top central council was directed to act against the individual. The US were not happy. They have seen rhetoric turned into violent action before. They feel that the US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter D. Haas is being singled out and the threats could naturally escalate to action. Why the US has decided to stick itself into the middle of Bangladesh’s warring politics is beyond most people. But it has. Its methods have not won any plaudits. French President Emmanuel Macron recently came to Dhaka to advocate “a third way” that promotes shared values without coercion, is a diplomatic move, contrasting with that most perceive as heavy-handed tactics by the United States. Macron made a direct reference to US pushing Bangladesh and called it ‘bullying.’ It was not a smart move from Washington. Macron made it clear that he does not like US posturing.
Macron is not alone, Indian Minister for External Affairs, S. Jaishankar asserted that, “one must understand the context also because the ‘picture is not complete’ without the context of it.” Jaishankar made these remarks in recent speech about western governments not paying attention to the needs of those they are trying to rebuke. He said Western countries, mainly the Anglosphere, cherry pick. They use and ignore human rights when it suits them. Bangladesh figures has also been echoing similar sentiments.
So, what is the context? A recent article titled ‘Tarique Rahman — Hasina’s top rival, Bangladesh’s ‘fugitive dark prince’ eyes BNP revival in exile’ by Deep Halder in The Print, a newspaper in India, revealed that anxiety about Bangladesh’s politics were at an all-time high. In understanding context, Halder revealed that Indian and BNP officials had met in Singapore to discuss Bangladesh politics and relations between the two countries. Halder said, “The Indian side said that a primary condition to even begin talks with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party would be for Tarique Rahman to be removed as chief of the party and also for the party to sever all ties with the Jamaat (Jamaat-e-Islami, the anti-India Islamist party)…the Indian side also told BNP leaders that Rahman has held close ties with fugitive don Dawood Ibrahim and Pakistan’s spy agency ISI, and has in the past told CIA officers that Bangladesh should never have been created.” If the article and the shocking claims are true, it shows how nations are not happy about the return of the dark prince as he is in exile in London.
Many are claiming that BNP leaders refusing to calm their activists or take responsibility for their violent actions shows they want to continue with their plans to ‘topple’ the current government with a violent putsch. The BNP are also using social media to claim the arson campaigns are a series of “false flag” attacks to defame them. This lack of responsibility shows the BNP has not learnt any lessons. The International Republican Institute recently conducted a poll in Bangladesh that said the majority of people want the BNP to fight elections not have street battles with the police. The approval rating of Shiekh Hasina was also at 70%. The BNP’s campaign of arson and violence is likely to cement those figures. The BNP did the exact same thing in the run up to the 2014 and 2018 general election. It shows that dark prince’s influence is still gripping the radicals within his party. BNP figures have recently defected to other parties. They say they want to fight elections, not the police or the general public. The US must address this ‘context’ at some point.
Prime Sheikh Hasina and Awami League figures have rightly criticised the US for finger wagging and using threats of Magnitsky sanctions to change political behaviour in Bangladesh. But the USA is a major trading partner with Bangladesh. It has made clear it is prepared to use carrots and sticks. Bangladesh does not really have much choice. It is backed into a corner. Macron can talk of a third way, but without major European support Bangladesh is likely to cave to US demands. There is not a lot of trust between the USA and Sheikh Hasina.
Hopefully, dialogue will be the best medicine to the current crisis. In moving forward, it is crucial for all stakeholders, including the BNP, to prioritise responsible and constructive political engagement. The international community can play a supportive role by encouraging dialogue and understanding the intricate dynamics at play in Bangladesh. Nobody has any appetite for a Pakistan-style hybrid regime. Awami League officials have said they will talk to BNP leaders without conditions. The government has proactively tackled threats to US diplomats. Ultimately, Bangladesh’s journey toward political maturity and responsible governance requires collective efforts and a commitment to democratic principles. It is always good to talk. We are all waiting for the BNP to tell their arsonists to put the matches, pipe bombs, and Molotov cocktails away. The polls are showing the Bangladesh people do not want their arson campaign to topple the government. The Bangladesh people want the BNP to have the courage to battle through use of the ballot box. Will they listen?