Modi’s Arab outreach signals a structural shift in India’s Gulf strategy

For decades, India’s engagement with the Arab world was viewed through a narrow prism, energy security, expatriate labour, and episodic diplomacy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent three-nation tour of Jordan, Oman, and Ethiopia marks a decisive break from that legacy. It signals not merely enhanced engagement, but a structural shift in how India is perceived and how it positions itself across the Gulf and the wider Arab world.

At the heart of this transformation lies a recalibration of India’s diplomatic posture: from transactional to strategic, from cautious to confident. The reception accorded to Modi in Jordan was emblematic. King Abdullah II’s public endorsement of India’s economic rise and his articulation of a transcontinental economic corridor linking South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe underscored a growing Arab consensus, India is no longer a peripheral Asian economy but a central pillar of emerging global supply chains.

Equally telling were the personal gestures by Jordan’s Crown Prince, who personally accompanied Modi to the Jordan Museum and later to the airport. In diplomacy, symbolism often conveys more than statements. Such gestures signal trust, warmth, and a recognition of India’s leadership role, elements rarely extended without strategic calculation.

Beyond symbolism, the substance of India–Jordan ties is expanding rapidly. The proposal to double bilateral trade to USD 5 billion within five years, alongside agreements spanning renewable energy, water management, digital public infrastructure, and cultural exchange, reflects India’s evolving strengths. New Delhi is no longer exporting just goods or manpower; it is exporting governance models, digital infrastructure, and development expertise.

If Jordan showcased political alignment, Oman highlighted economic trust. Modi’s conferment with the Order of Oman (First Class), the Sultanate’s highest civilian honour, placed him in the company of global figures such as Queen Elizabeth II and Nelson Mandela. More significantly, it marked the 29th international honour bestowed on him, with five of the six GCC member states having now accorded him their top civilian awards. This is unprecedented in India’s diplomatic history and reflects sustained credibility rather than episodic goodwill.

The India–Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) represents the most concrete manifestation of this trust. It is only the second such trade agreement Oman has signed in nearly two decades, the first being with the United States. The decision to offer zero-duty access on over 98 percent of tariff lines covering Indian exports reflects Oman’s confidence in India as a long-term economic partner.

For India, the benefits are far-reaching. Labour-intensive sectors, MSMEs, women-led enterprises, and skilled professionals stand to gain significantly. The agreement also strengthens services trade, improves professional mobility, and allows 100 percent FDI in key services sectors—positioning India not just as a manufacturing hub but as a services and talent powerhouse in the Gulf ecosystem.

What makes this outreach particularly notable is how decisively it overturns earlier assumptions. When Modi rose to power, sceptics predicted a cooling of India–Arab ties due to perceived ideological differences. Instead, the opposite has occurred. Arab states have embraced India under Modi with greater warmth, frequency, and strategic depth than at any point in recent history.

This shift is not accidental. It is rooted in India’s growing economic weight, its political stability, its non-interventionist foreign policy, and its ability to balance relations across competing regional blocs. Unlike many global powers, India engages the Arab world without coercion, conditionality, or regime-centric agendas, making it an attractive and reliable partner in an increasingly fragmented global order.

Ultimately, Modi’s Arab outreach is about more than diplomacy or trade. It reflects India’s emergence as a civilisational state comfortable with its identity and confident in its global role. As the Gulf recalibrates its own strategic priorities beyond hydrocarbons, India is positioning itself not on the margins, but at the core of that transformation.