As North Korea tests yet another Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), what could be its regional and global implications?
Tensions mount in the Korean peninsula after North Korea conducted yet another Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile Test (ICBM), its first in five months. The state, over the year, has been conducting a series of missile launch tests in order to showcase its military might to its adversaries within and outside the continent. In what can be called a classic case of a security dilemma in the region, North Korea’s actions would prompt a military build-up by South Korea and neighbouring Japan which in turn would increase the threat perception of North Korea, resulting in more missile launch tests. The recent ICBM test came immediately after the second Nuclear Consultative Group Meeting between South Korea and the United States which directly deemed North Korea’s military aggression as threatening to the peace and security in the region and may lead to direct action by the United States and “may result in the end of the Kim regime”. The United States has in turn taken South Korea under its nuclear umbrella, also reducing the risk of South Korea taking up the nuclear option itself. The efforts, however, aimed at preventing the complete nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, may have little effect on the state gone rogue- North Korea.
In the Joint Press release of the Nuclear Consultative Group Meeting, both states reiterated their commitments to take firm actions against any aggression perpetrated by North Korea. This will also result in extended deterrence through the US vessels, nuclear-powered submarines and nuclear-capable arsenal being stationed in and around South Korea. From the perspective of its northern neighbour, this could constitute a direct threat to the security of North Korea and perhaps prompt more such ballistic missile tests.
Ballistic Missiles are rocket-propelled missiles that follow an arching trajectory to deliver the warhead to the target. They constitute an important and most significant part of the nuclear arsenals as most ballistic missiles are nuclear-capable. There are different types of ballistic missiles, categorized based on their ranges. The short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM), intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) and the inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM). The ICBMs, have the longest range and can target areas far away from the launch sites as well. The missiles in question in this context are these ICBMs. North Korea has been actively involved in conducting launch tests of ICBMs such as the Huwasong-18. This missile is also a solid fuel missile which makes its launch time lesser than that of a liquid-fueled missile. The ballistic missiles can be either liquid-fueled or solid-fueled. Liquid fuel is often extremely toxic, corrosive and explosive which is why it is kept outside of the missile and only loaded at the time of launch, increasing the time of its deployment. Solid fuel, on the other hand, is safe to be stored within the missile to increase its efficiency and response time.
Kim Jong Un is investing in long-range solid-fueled ICBMs that could target areas across the world. Given that North Korea’s two main adversaries in the region - South Korea and Japan are within the short-range targets, it becomes obvious that North Korea is building the capacity to directly target the other adversary far away, the United States. North Korea also tested a short-range ballistic missile just hours before testing Huwasong-18, signaling its resolve to mount military pressure in the region in the face of growing cooperation between the US, South Korea and Japan to deter North Korean aggression.
The most latest ICBM test of Huwasong-18, details its potential range of about 15,000 km. The launch was conducted from near Pyongyang, the missile rose to an altitude of 6,000km and landed in the waters just near Japan’s exclusive economic zone, alerting the island nation. This ICBM launch test is just a part of the wider policy change in North Korea which has constitutionally acquired the option of producing nuclear weapons to develop deterrence capabilities against the provocations of the United States. North Korea sees the US involvement in providing a security umbrella to South Korea and Japan as direct meddling in the region, hence threatening the North Korean national security. Relations with South Korea have also been turning sour as Kim Jong Un has decided to scrap the commitments made under the North-South Military Agreement aimed at de-escalating tensions along the border. Ever since then, North Korea has been accelerating military buildup on its southern border, increasing the threat perception of South Korea.
The United States’ efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula have been backfiring as North Korea holds on to its nuclear weapons development option, resulting in an arms race that may render deterrence obsolete. North Korea is also not bound by international treaty instruments prohibiting tests of nuclear weapons and related systems as it stands outside the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty obligations as well. The escalating tensions in recent times, especially with Russia and China being sympathetic to the North Korean military ambitions, will result in increased military buildup in the region. There may be more such missile launch tests in the works by North Korea which will serve to aggravate rather than deter the latent tensions.