Recent reports by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and the release of new satellite images have pointed to China's rapid nuclear proliferation. The satellite images highlighting the revamping of the Lop Nur base increase concerns about the possibility of a new nuclear weapons test by China. This move would be a major setback for the international arms control and non-proliferation regime.
A recent report by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists underlined China’s attempts to starkly expand its nuclear arsenals by seeking to double the existing number, to reach about 1000 nuclear warheads in its possession. This development falls directly in line with the general attempts by the nuclear weapons states to modernize their nuclear arsenals and increase their deterrence capabilities. However, it is interesting to note that China attempts to expand its existing arsenals even more rapidly than the other nuclear weapons-possessing states. The United States also had similar predictions, estimating that China would reach 1000 nuclear warheads in less than a decade, increasing the threshold of the stability/instability dilemma in not just Southern Asia but also in the entire world.
This is because China, at this point, possesses a very strategic position in the international security structure. It is not just a revisionist state seeking to reverse the position of the US as the largest economic and military power in the world, it is emerging with a stronger offensive stance to its foreign policy. China’s leader Xi Jinping has been openly asserting a more forceful approach to issues relating to the country’s national security, whether it be the question of Taiwan, the disputes in the South China Sea or its rivalry with the United States. When it comes to China’s nuclear posture, the country has rarely used nuclear threats or threats of proliferation as a means to achieve diplomatic ends. China has also adopted a no-first-use policy. However, the fact that China has been secretly trying to not just expand but also diversify its nuclear capabilities, points to a larger question- is China going to alter its nuclear doctrine in the near future?
Not a long time ago, it was discovered through newly released satellite images that China has been attempting to revamp the Lop Nur base. The base has been the original site for China's first-ever nuclear weapons test, the test that put the country on the map of a handful of nuclear weapons-possessing states in the world- the highest perceived symbol of hard power even in today’s context. The images showed signs of freshly drilled boreholes, new vertical shafts, fences and dirt roads along with a large complex of buildings, There was evidence of the construction of tunnels, new underground bunkers with security fences which pointed to the creation of facilities for storing nuclear devices. These satellite images alerted the international community to the speculation that China may be steadily approaching a new nuclear weapons test, thus quashing any hopes for a future ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which seeks to prohibit any new nuclear weapons test as an important step towards halting the proliferation of such weapons of mass destruction. What was indeed interesting was to also witness the fast pace at which China seems to be making these stark changes on the ground.
The Lop Nur testing base is located in Xinjiang, a province already in grips of human rights violations by the Chinese state, the communities living in the vicinity of the nuclear test site are still grappling with the health consequences of exposure to high amounts of radiation as a result of China’s first nuclear test. Subsequent tests in the same region are bound to make the communities even more vulnerable to such catastrophic consequences.
The assessment of China’s modernization of nuclear arsenals has also indicated that the country is aiming to expand on its silo-based nuclear structure after decades of developing a more mobile arsenal. Since silo-based nuclear structures are more likely to survive a first strike while also possessing a second strike capability, it can point to China’s efforts to increase the survivability of its arsenal in the event of a nuclear strike.
What does this mean for regional and global security?
While the projections from the Pentagon in the United States, stating that China is likely to reach about 1000 warheads by 2030, may not be subject to verification, owing to the lack of transparency of the Chinese nuclear program. This lack of transparent information regarding the amount of fissile material, changes in stockpiles and efforts towards modernization of the arsenals, makes it difficult to assess and predict the upcoming developments in China’s nuclear weapon stockpiles. However, the satellite images become an important source of such information, indicating the efforts being made to develop the nuclear weapons testing site once more, which categorically implies that China may be heading towards a new test in the near future.
As per the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, based on the limited sources of information available, China has been engaged in the development of more silo-based solid fuel Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with a longer range and increased survivability as well as ease of deployment of the warheads. Considering China’s tense relations with the United States, it is an important development that China’s new nuclear-capable ICBMs have a range up to the continental United States. This increases the security anxieties of the United States itself, as the country has been constantly engaging in studying China’s nuclear weapons development and predicting its future posture.
If China continues to engage in rapid modernization and if it does conduct a new nuclear weapon test, it would have far-reaching implications for the regional and international security dynamics as a whole. Regionally, it would create a ripple effect- impacting India and subsequently Pakistan as well. India considers China’s nuclear weapons of a paramount threat to its security and such rapid modernization of nuclear arsenals in the neighbourhood is bound to give rise to an arms race with extreme repercussions. When it comes to international security, the United States has a close eye on China’s nuclear posture as well as its developments. A new test by China will create an environment of international pressure especially when the major nuclear weapon states - the United States and Russia have already reduced their commitments to international non-proliferation and arms control regimes.
Considering China’s aggressive posturing over the past years regarding its conflicts in the region and beyond, nuclear weapons modernization will add another layer to its hard power diplomacy, ushering in a new dimension of nuclear power politics.