The 're-hyphenation' myth
- Hindol Sengupta
- May 19
- 7 min read
While arch-adversaries in a military conflict, the massive gap in economic size, geopolitical heft, military budget ensures that India and Pakistan can never be hyphenated ever again.
The notion that India (~1.5 billion people) could be "rehyphenated" with Pakistan (~200 million people) in contemporary geopolitical discourse is not merely flawed-it is anachronistic. To assert such equivalence in 2025 is to ignore two decades of tectonic shifts in global power dynamics, economic realignments, and India’s deliberate strategic ascent. Let us dissect this fallacy through the prism of hard data, institutional evolution, and the irreversible momentum of India’s global integration. India's established position as a significantly larger economy and a far more critical partner in the evolving global order renders such a coupling a relic of the past, unreflective of contemporary geopolitical and economic realities.
For decades, India has consciously worked to de-link its international identity from Pakistan, a necessity born from the vastly different paths the two nations have traversed since their inception. While historical ties and unresolved disputes, primarily concerning Kashmir, have traditionally led to a paired view, especially in Western foreign policy circles, the ground reality has shifted dramatically.
The most compelling argument against re-hyphenation lies in the stark economic divergence between India and Pakistan. India’s $4.7 trillion economy now constitutes 3.5% of global GDP (PPP), positioned to overtake Japan by 2027. Pakistan’s $465 billion economy, shrinking under 40% inflation and $130 billion external debt, contributes less than 0.5% to world output. This 10:1 economic disparity is no longer just a statistic-it has crystallized into geopolitical gravity. When the G20 convened in Delhi (2023), India shaped agendas on climate finance and digital infrastructure, while Pakistan sought another IMF bailout. The hyphenation argument collapses when one nation architects multilateral frameworks and the other survives on financial life support. Projections indicate India is on a trajectory to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030. Key economic indicators paint a picture of a robust and expanding nation:
GDP Size: India's economy is over ten times larger than Pakistan's nominal GDP of roughly $340-$370 billion.
Growth Rate: While India consistently posts high growth, Pakistan's economy has struggled with growth rates hovering around 1-2.6%, battling severe inflation (around 23-30% recently) and a depreciating currency.
Foreign Exchange Reserves: India maintains healthy foreign exchange reserves, recently reported around $600-$686 billion, providing substantial economic stability. In contrast, Pakistan's reserves have been critically low, often in the $8-15 billion range, necessitating frequent IMF bailouts and support from allies.
Debt and Fiscal Health: While India's debt-to-GDP ratio is moderate (around 80%) and considered sustainable, Pakistan faces a high-risk debt situation with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 85%, leading to a recurring debt crisis.
Trade and Investment: India is emerging as a global export hub with diverse exports in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and software, attracting significant Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (around $70 billion annually). Pakistan's exports remain heavily reliant on textiles, and FDI inflows are minimal (around $1-2 billion annually).
Sectoral Composition & Industrial Base: India boasts a more diversified and advanced industrial base with a strong services sector (IT, finance, telecom) contributing significantly to its GDP. Pakistan's industrial base is less developed, with a heavy reliance on agriculture and textiles.
Human Development: India's Human Development Index (HDI) stands around 0.64 (medium), outperforming Pakistan's HDI of approximately 0.54 (low), reflecting better indicators in education, health, and living standards.
This economic disparity is not merely quantitative but qualitative. India's focus on structural reforms, technological advancements (including a significant push in the semiconductor and digital economy), and inclusive growth has garnered global confidence. Conversely, Pakistan's economy is marred by political instability, energy shortages, low investor confidence, and a continuous cycle of bailouts. Pakistan which exists on foreign dole cannot, at least in the foreseeable future, provide the kind of market, supply chain resilience, and manufacturing depth that India provides the global economy.
Beyond economics, India's role in the contemporary global order is fundamentally different from Pakistan's. India is increasingly viewed as a 'middle power' or, as some analysts suggest, an emerging major power, indispensable to discussions on global governance, security, and economic development. Its active and influential participation in multilateral forums underscores this:
G20 Presidency and Influence: India's recent presidency of the G20 and its hosting of the 'Voice of Global South' Summit showcased its leadership ambitions and its commitment to shaping a more inclusive global agenda.
Strategic Partnerships: India has cultivated a web of strategic partnerships with major global players, including the United States (evident in defense cooperation agreements and robust trade ties via forums like the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum), Japan, Australia (as part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QUAD), Russia, and key European nations. These partnerships span defense, technology, economic cooperation, and counter-terrorism.
Multilateral Engagement: India is a key member of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and has played a significant role in the East Asia Summit and the World Trade Organization. Its 'Neighbourhood First' and 'Act East' policies further demonstrate its regional leadership.
Shaping Global Norms: India is increasingly leveraging its diplomatic strength to advocate for new principles in global governance that reflect a more equitable and multipolar world. It champions causes relevant to the Global South, including climate change, sustainable development, and reforms in global financial institutions.
Security Provider: India is seen as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region and a crucial partner in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.
The 2014-2024 decade witnessed India’s conscious uncoupling from the Pakistan-centric South Asia narrative. Prime Minister Modi’s "Act East" and "Link West" policies reoriented strategic focus toward ASEAN and the Gulf. The results are measurable:
Quad membership (India’s annual naval exercises with US/Japan/Australia vs. Pakistan’s reliance on China’s Belt and Road)
Defense exports surge from $1.5 billion (2020) to $6 billion (2025), making India a net security exporter
Energy diplomacy securing 50% crude imports from Russia/Iraq post-Ukraine war, while Pakistan faces 30% power shortages.
In stark contrast, Pakistan's international engagement is often viewed through the prism of its internal security challenges, its role in regional instability (particularly concerning Afghanistan), and its economic dependencies. While it remains a nuclear power, its ability to positively shape the global order is severely constrained. The concept of "hyphenation" historically linked India and Pakistan, primarily due to the Kashmir dispute and their shared history, forcing them to be viewed as a single security complex. India has actively sought "de-hyphenation" to assert its own distinct global identity and aspirations, separate from the turbulence often associated with Pakistan. Recent attempts, particularly from some quarters in Pakistan following the April-May 2025 conflict, to suggest a "re-hyphenation" are largely self-serving narratives. While any military escalation between two nuclear-armed neighbors rightly draws international attention and concern, it does not automatically reset India's significantly elevated global standing. In economic size and global awareness, Pakistan, where Osama bin Laden was found hiding, is reputationally the opposite of India, and therefore any hyphenation beyond limited period analysis during a military conflict is neither useful, nor comprehensive.
Several factors ensure that such re-hyphenation fears are meaningless for India:
Asymmetrical Power Dynamics: The sheer scale of India's economy, military capabilities (though Pakistan also possesses nuclear weapons, India's conventional and technological edge is growing), and diplomatic influence far outstrips Pakistan's. Global powers engage with India on a wide spectrum of global issues that have little to no relevance to Pakistan.
India's Independent Strategic Importance: India's value to the international community – as a democratic counterweight, a vast market, a technology hub, and a partner in addressing global challenges – exists independently of its relationship with Pakistan. The focus of global powers has shifted; for instance, the US strategic calculus increasingly views India in the context of the Indo-Pacific and as a partner in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), rather than primarily through the South Asian lens with Pakistan.
Divergent Global Perceptions: India is largely perceived as a responsible democratic power contributing to global stability and growth. Pakistan, despite its own strategic importance to some nations, continues to grapple with perceptions related to terrorism financing and internal instability, as evidenced by its past scrutiny by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
The China Factor: Increasingly, India's strategic calculus and its engagement with the world are shaped by its relationship and competition with China. This "India-China" hyphenation, in terms of strategic and economic comparison, is becoming more relevant in global discourse than the outdated "India-Pakistan" one.
India’s "multi-alignment" strategy has created an irreplicable network:
U.S.: Defense trade surged from $1 billion (2008) to $25 billion (2025)
EU: Signed 2024 Free Trade Agreement covering 95% tariff lines
Global South: Championed inclusion of African Union in G20
Pakistan’s sole "ally," China, now prioritizes stabilizing Xinjiang over Kashmir. The $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor remains half-complete, with Beijing demanding sovereign guarantees for further loans-a humiliation no Indian government would tolerate.
India’s 68% working-age population (under 35) fuels a 7% consistent GDP growth, even during global recessions. Pakistan’s youth bulge has become a demographic time bomb, with 35% NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) rates and $30 billion annual loss from climate-driven migration. No amount of hyphenation rhetoric can bridge this human capital chasm
While the Kashmir issue remains a point of contention and a potential flashpoint, it no longer defines the entirety of India's international relations or its global stature. The international community, while urging restraint and dialogue, also recognizes the vast difference in scale, capacity, and global contribution between India and Pakistan.
The recent conflict, though serious, is unlikely to reverse the decades-long trend of India's rise and its successful de-hyphenation from Pakistan. India's economic trajectory, its deepening strategic partnerships, and its growing influence in shaping the global order are robust and self-sustaining. Any narrative of 're-hyphenation' is a misinterpretation of fleeting events, failing to acknowledge the deep structural realities that firmly place India in a distinct and far more significant position on the world stage. The fears, therefore, are not just exaggerated; they are fundamentally meaningless in the face of India's undeniable ascent.
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