Why India-Turkey ties are in crisis

The recent conflict has also brought forth Pakistan’s relationship with Turkey and the latter’s consistent support to the defence infrastructure of Pakistan. The airstrikes intercepted by India revealed the presence of Turkish drones that were supplied to Pakistan. As per the press briefings conducted by the armed forces, preliminary reports indicated that the drones were Turkish-manufactured Asisguard Songar models. Additionally, reports of Turkish Ada class anti-submarine docked at the Karachi port and the Turkish C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft landing at the Karachi airport also surfaced in the midst of this conflict. 

It is a stated fact that Turkey is Pakistan's second-largest defence supplier after China. China and Turkey's support has contributed considerably to Pakistan's existing military capabilities. This unwavering support for Pakistan, not only during this conflict but also over the larger question of Kashmir, has put Turkey’s relationship with India to test. The trajectory of the India-Turkey relationship has been in an ebb and flow state wherein, in contemporary times, India has occupied second place to Pakistan as far as Turkish foreign policy is concerned. 

A brief history of Turkey- India ties 

Perhaps one of the most prominent engagements between India and Turkey dates back to the Khilafat movement after World War I. Rising in 1919, the Khilafat movement was a pan-Islamic movement in India in support of the preservation of the Ottoman Caliphate in the face of the threat posed by the Empire’s defeat in the First World War. Mahatma Gandhi himself became a staunch supporter of the Khilafat movement and embraced it as a symbol of Hindu-Muslim unity within the country and beyond.

As the Ottoman Empire eventually disintegrated, the struggle for the creation of a new Turkish republic ensued. India extended significant support to Turkey's War of Independence from 1919 to 1923 under Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's leadership and for the formation of the Turkish Republic. Mahatma Gandhi himself took a firm stand against the injustices inflicted upon Turkey at the end of World War I. India's proactive support during Turkey's nation-building phase cemented a powerful bond of solidarity rooted in shared anti-colonial struggles and mutual respect for national self-determination. 

During the Ataturk era, Turkey and India’s freedom movement leaders enjoyed a considerably cordial relationship. The secular forces on both ends extended support for each other and spoke of a shared vision of strong bilateral ties. Upon Ataturk's death in 1938, the Indian National Assembly expressed profound condolences, with speeches and poems read in his honor, underscoring the deep respect he commanded in India. During the Ataturk era, India was not yet an independent country, and the leaders of the freedom movement admired Ataturk’s role in building a secular republic in Turkey after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. After India’s independence, diplomatic relations between the two countries were formalised by 1948. The bilateral relationship remained deeply cordial as India began its journey towards nation-building after independence. 

However, during the Cold War era, the two countries found themselves endorsing different approaches to dealing with Cold War rivalries. While India adopted a non-aligned approach under the Non-Alignment Movement, Turkey supported the United States and joined the Western Bloc. Pakistan also joined the Western bloc and provided support to the United States of America. Turkey was also a part of the Baghdad Pact, a regional military alliance that included Pakistan. The differing geopolitical alignments during the Cold War resulted in relatively limited interaction between India and Turkey, as their foreign policy priorities and strategic partners diverged significantly. However, economic ties still witnessed a positive shift as during the 1970s and 80s, the Bilateral Trade Agreement was signed and the India–Turkey Joint Commission on Economic and Technical Cooperation (JCETC) was established which served as the foundational frameworks for strengthening economic relationships during the budding years of the Turkey-India ties. 

It was after the Cold War that the bilateral relationship started to gain some momentum, with high-level official visits on both sides, the establishment of the Turkey-India Joint Business Council and the Agreement on the Avoidance of Double Taxation, in an attempt to improve the economic ties between the countries. The early years of the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan were marked by enhancing economic relations with India and rapid trade ties, which reached as high as $8.7 billion. 

Figure 1- Evolution of India-Turkey ties (source- MEA, India)

When ties began to falter

The marked negative shift in the relationship with India, however, resulted from some extreme domestic political changes that took place in Turkey under Erdogan. What started as Erdogan's democratic political rule in Turkey transformed into an autocratic Islamist fundamental leadership. Erdogan’s political trajectory changed course when he established himself as the absolute leader of Turkey by conferring his office with all the executive powers after surviving a failed coup attempt in 2016. Erdogan’s, from this point on, increasingly emphasized a neo-Ottoman vision and a more pronounced pan-Islamist agenda. This ideological reorientation in Turkish foreign policy led to a noticeable tilt towards Pakistan and a more critical stance on issues affecting Muslim populations globally, including the Kashmir dispute, which began to increasingly strained relations with India. This issue has consistently acted as a significant impediment to building a stronger and more comprehensive partnership between India and Turkey during Erdogan's leadership.

Furthermore, Turkey was among the few nations that opposed India's entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group. This opposition reflects a divergence in strategic perspectives and aligns with Pakistan's concerns regarding India's nuclear status, further indicating a tilt in Turkey's foreign policy in South Asia. These developments resulted in Turkey and India finding themselves on opposite sides of the spectrum concerning the South Asian geopolitical landscape. 

A significant low point in recent bilateral relations occurred in 2019 when Turkey decided to downgrade diplomatic relations with India following India's revocation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir. Turkey also strongly criticized India's actions at the United Nations. This diplomatic fallout demonstrated the depth of Turkey's disapproval of India's policy change in Kashmir and signaled a more confrontational stance. 

Economically, even in the midst of these political disagreements, India and Turkey attempted to maintain a steady pace of economic ties, wherein in 2022-23, the bilateral trade volume even crossed $ 13 billion. However, it gradually came down to $10 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24. India also continued to pursue its humanitarian diplomacy through ‘Operation Dost,’ a search and rescue operation launched in 2023 to assist Syria and Turkey after the devastating earthquake that claimed the lives of many people in the impacted region. Additionally, in the airline division, India’s Indigo and Turkish Airlines continue with jointly operated flights to many destinations in Europe and the United States. Against the backdrop of the defence support provided by Turkey to Pakistan during the recent conflict, India’s commercial and business engagements with Turkey are receiving intense backlash with persistent calls for a boycott of Turkish goods. The Tourism industry in Turkey would also face a challenge as Indian tourists are canceling their travels to Turkey in large numbers. As a country that is highly dependent on tourism (the sector contributes to 12% of its GDP), this development could have significant consequences for Turkey. In 2023, the contribution of Indian tourists to Turkey’s tourism industry was approximately $ 350 million, while in 2024, Turkey saw around 3,00,000 Indian tourists. This move could thus halt another area of strong engagement between India and Turkey. 

Declining tourism, calls for boycotting Turkish imports, and reducing diplomatic engagements between the two countries are evidence of the fact that India and Turkey’s relationship is faltering in the midst of the latter’s strong support for Pakistan. It is not just the defence engagement between Turkey and Pakistan but also the political support that Turkey provides to Pakistan in the international fora - even for bilateral issues such as Kashmir, that has become a point of contention for India. As long as Turkey continues to provide material and diplomatic support to Pakistan while sidelining India’s geopolitical interests in the subcontinent, the fissures in the bilateral relationship between India and Turkey will continue to deepen.